Please prepare yourself with the tips below
While experts argue about whether there will be a recession or not, it’s a pointless debate. For most, it will feel like a recession whether it’s technically one or not.
Interest Rate Hikes
Yesterday, the FED raised interest rates by 0.5%, the biggest rise since 2000. Rates will continue to rise over the coming years.
Today, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 1%. This is the highest they’ve reached since 2009.
That interest rates of 1% are considered high shows how weak the economy has been for the last couple of decades. Western economies are so weak that even interest rates of 1% are a danger to them.
Politicians love to blame the Ukraine war, but these low rates are nothing new. Politicians and bankers have been destroying the economy for a very long time.
In February, the Bank of England expected inflation to peak at 9–10%. Now they’re expecting it to peak at 10.25%. You can be almost certain it will be higher. They’ve been raising their expectations for the last year or so. They ALWAYS get it wrong. Even before the war, they got it wildly wrong, yet they still blame the war. It’s pathetic.
Same in the US. Inflation is heading to over 10%. That’s assuming it’s not already there.
Inflation in Turkey is over 70%. Maybe a sign of where the West is heading. Turkey is also keeping interest rates low, just like in the US and UK.
The Bank of England is expecting the economy to contract in the last quarter of this year. They’re also expecting it to contract by 0.25% next year. In 2024 they’re expecting the economy to grow by 0.25%. So that’s 0% growth over 2 years.
Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said the UK would suffer “a very sharp slowdown”. The R-word (recession) is banned. He won’t say that word. We all know it’s coming. Whether it’s technical or not is irrelevant. Apparently, a contraction in the last quarter followed by a contraction over 2023 doesn’t count as a recession. A technical recession means two consecutive quarters of contraction.
In December it was forecast that US GDP would grow by 3.7% this year and 2.4% next year. Most people would be surprised if that happened. Maybe they have found a way to cook the books.
Oil and Gas Prices
In the UK, energy bills rose 54% in April. They’re expected to rise a further 40% in October, based on current oil and gas prices.
The Stock Market
Many are expecting a stock market crash any time soon. If that happens it will devastate many ordinary citizens that have their savings and pensions invested in shares.
At the time of writing, the Down is down over 1,000 points. The S&P 500 is down almost 4% and the Nasdaq is down almost 5%. Crypto prices are also down sharply.
Other Asset Prices
Other asset prices are bound to follow a stock market crash downwards. Wherever you hold your money, you will likely lose a large chunk of it.
Keep it in cash and it will get inflated away. Keep it in assets and the prices will drop.
We’re in for a tough time over the next few years.
The Bank of England said today that it doesn’t expect inflation to fall back to under 2% until 2024. They added that the impact on consumers would last much longer. They didn’t define “much longer”.
It sounds like we could be near the end of the decade before any sense of normality returns. I hope not, but it’s looking very grim.
How To Survive This Crisis?
There are things that we can do as individuals to survive the crises. The following articles have advice on how to spend less and earn more.