For many people, a recession is already here. For others, it’s coming soon. The US has already had two quarters of negative GDP growth. In most countries, that means a recession. However, just like Russia claims the war in Ukraine isn’t a war, the US claims that the recession isn’t a recession.
In the US, only a committee can confirm a recession. That leaves the decision of whether there is or isn’t a recession open to manipulation.
UK definition of a recession
In the UK, the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. The Bank of England has already said that it thinks the country is already in a recession. There was negative GDP growth last quarter and there likely will be this quarter as well. But we’ll have to wait until the official figures are announced before it’s confirmed.
Using the UK definition, the US is already in recession.
According to a recent poll, around 76% of Americans believe that the US is already in a recession.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
A US housing recession
The National Association of Realtors defines a housing recession as home sales dropping for 6 straight months. That has already happened.
Prices are also starting to drop in many locations. I can’t see any way that there won’t be a US housing price crash.
GBP is collapsing
In the UK, the GBP dropped to its lowest level ever against the USD, at just over $1.03. For reference, the GBP was worth around $4 just after WWII. In the late 1990s, it was worth over $2. Can you see a pattern here?
The crash in the value of the pound was due to the UK’s incompetent Prime Minister and her Chancellor announcing a budget of unfunded tax cuts for the rich. The Bank of England had to respond with an emergency intervention in the bond market.
It was reported that many UK pension funds would have become insolvent within hours without that intervention.
The Bank of England has also said they will raise interest rates substantially at their next planned meeting in November. Many think a rate rise will need to come sooner than that.
Mortgage rates are rising
Mortgage rates in the US have already hit 7%. They are expected to be at similar rates to that in the UK sometime next year.
The UK mortgage market works differently from the US where most borrowers have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
In the UK, many mortgages are for fixed rates of 2, 3, or 5 years.
At the moment, many are on fixed rates of around 2%. Imagine the shock when the fixed rates expire and they have to borrow at 7%. It’s been reported that almost 2 million fixed-rate mortgages in the UK will come to an end in the next 12 months.
Some homeowners have already put their homes on the market because they know they won’t be able to afford the new rates.
Many are now predicting a UK property crash that could see price drops of 15-40%. I’ve even seen some predictions of 50% price drops.
Many refuse to believe such predictions and call them alarmist. During the global financial crisis of 2008-9, my property dropped in price by over 40%. It’s entirely plausible that the same will happen in the next 1-3 years.
London is expected to be the worst hit area. Property prices are much higher than in the rest of the country, so increased mortgage costs will hit borrowers much harder.
Usually, recessions happen in some countries while others are doing fine. A global recession tends to be a rare event. But Ned Davis Research is saying there is a 98.1% chance of a global recession.
The last time their recession probability model was at these levels was during the pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis of 2008-9.
America is spreading misery around the world
Another major problem at the moment is that the US Fed is raising interest rates aggressively in order to bring inflation back down to 2%. This is causing currencies around the world to weaken against the strong USD. This creates increasing levels of inflation in those countries.
To combat that inflation, those countries also need to raise interest rates. This pushes them into recession. It’s a vicious cycle. America is spreading inflation and recession around the world.
America, please get your act together and stop spreading misery to everyone!!!
So, that’s where we’re at. It’s grim. Brutal times are coming. There is no point denying it and burying your heads in the sand.
The best way to get through the coming years is to prepare. Those that are prepared will be able to weather the storm and maybe even come out ahead.
This is not financial advice, as I don’t know your exact circumstance, but I think it would be wise to cut back on your spending and also do your best to get a second income. Hunker down until the storm has passed.
These times are also when many get rich. Stocks, crypto, property, and other assets will get beaten down in price. There will be some real bargains available. Those with cash will be the ones buying up these bargains. If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve already been accumulating cash.
I’ve been positioning myself for these times for many years. I hope you have as well. Even if you haven’t, there’s still time to do it.
Best of luck.
It’s still not too late to try to protect yourself
It would have be better if you were already prepared, but if you’re not, don’t delay any longer.
Read my previous articles on the situation. They have actionable steps you can take today to help protect yourself.